Senate
42%
chance Republicans keep the majority
Democrats 58% · Expected change: R −4 · D +4
Trade on Polymarket ↗AI forecast · Updated OCT 28, 2026
2026 US Midterm Predictions
Verafy predicts outcomes by pooling a panel of AI judges into a consensus. Forecast estimates the results of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections for every Senate race and House district, state by state. Every forecast here is AI-generated, not a poll or an official result.
On-demand forecasts use the Forecast balance. This one takes 200 credits. Reading a published race stays free.
House
25%
chance Republicans keep the majority
Democrats 75% · Expected change: R −10 · D +13
Trade on Polymarket ↗Senate races: R favored in 17 states · D favored in 16 · 2 toss-ups
Senate map
35 seats on the ballot
House map
435 of 435 districts forecast
- Republican
- Democrat
- Toss-up
- Pending
- No Senate race
- Muted = less certain
Seats
Seats now vs. panel forecast
Expected seats after Nov 3, from the panel's average probabilities. The teal line is the majority.
Senate100 seats
Seats held today vs. where the panel expects the chamber to land after Nov 3.
Majority: 51
- Republicans
- 49
- Democrats
- 49
- Independents
- 2
- Change
- R −4
House435 seats
Seats held today vs. where the panel expects the chamber to land after Nov 3.
Majority: 218
- Republicans
- 208
- Democrats
- 227
- Independents
- 0
- Change
- R −10
435 of 435 districts forecastHouse totals appear at 90%
By model
Each model's overall prediction
Every model's Senate and House call on its own, next to the swarm average.
Swarm average
Senate
R 49 · D 49I 2
R keeps majority: 42%
House
R 208 · D 227
435 of 435 districts so far
GPT-6 Astra
Senate
R 48 · D 50I 2
R keeps majority: 32%
House
R 193 · D 199
392 of 435 districts so far · 43 no answer
Claude Fable 5.1
Senate
R 49 · D 49I 2
R keeps majority: 35%
House
R 188 · D 223
411 of 435 districts so far · 24 no answer
Gemini 4 Argon
Senate
R 53 · D 45I 2
R keeps majority: 82%
House
R 187 · D 187
374 of 435 districts so far · 61 no answer
Grok 4.7
Senate
R 48 · D 49I 2
1 no answer
House
R 200 · D 217
417 of 435 districts so far · 18 no answer
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Senate
R 48 · D 50I 2
R keeps majority: 26%
House
R 201 · D 223
424 of 435 districts so far · 11 no answer
Chance of control
Republicans42%
Democrats58%
History builds daily; one point so far
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